Middle East Ignorance and Prejudice

Netanyahu's behavior in the upcoming peace negotiations with Abbas is unknown at this stage. One can attempt to predict the behavior based on his hard-line views or one may be somewhat more intelligent and remember that Begin was as much of a hard-liner as Netanyahu is before the negotiation with Sadat. Still Begin gave up the whole Sinai and destroyed a big city in the process for peace.

Abbas, however, is very easy to predict. He did his best not to negotiate at all. Only Obama's pressure has forced Abbas to come to the negotiation table. You can bring the horse to the water, but you cannot make it drink. Abbas will do his best the blame Israel for a failure to reach peace, but he is not interested in an agreement.

It is astonishing that the "experts" writing about the negotiation are not aware of Abbas' difficulties. These difficulties, however, are and were in the open for years.

First, Abbas faces the same mountain faced by Arafat in 2000. Neither of them has prepared the Palestinian people for the compromises that peace will entail. As Barak said in a recent interview with Charlie Rose, the borders of area of the future Palestinian state are well known. Namely, that is the 67 borders with the inclusion of a few major settlements in exchange for land from Israel’s pre 67 borders. Barak also implied the division of Jerusalem between Israel and Palestine. (Without the latter peace is not possible.) The Palestinians still expect to get, at least, the exact 67 borders as well as all of Jerusalem and then return the refugees to Israel proper. Abbas and other leaders have never explained to their people that it is not 1948 anymore.

Second, peace without Hamas and Gaza will collapse in no time. Obama pressing for peace without Hamas is baffling. Furthermore, either Obama or the Israelis should have started discussion with Hamas way before the bombastic “peace talks” with Abbas started. Abbas is too passive, too weak and too indifferent to do it himself. That there is no peace without Hamas should have been obvious to the three parties involved and yet nothing was done about it.

Third, a solution to the refuge problem has to be acceptable to Israel and Palestine. It is crucial, difficult but can be negotiate as an independent issue. Again, nothing was done with that problem. Obama, as usual seems to ignore the problem.

These three issues will prevent Abbas from agreeing to a peace treaty. Abbas can do little about the first issue. Abbas is unfit to solve the second issue and Obama, the best party to deal with the problem, has done nothing to achieve a solution. All three parties leave the third issue, the refugees, for last. It is excessively big to ignore.