Saturday, December 5, 2009

The Taliban will Lay Low

until the US lives Afghanistan. That's the latest mantra from a large collection of pundits, analysts and journalist referring to the leaving date Obama has set for the US military in Afghanistan. The basic idea, if I get the point, is that the Taliban will decide to prefer hiding for almost two years instead of fight with the US.

This idea couldn't be more wrong, more surrealistic, more contextless and more senseless. Where will the relatively large organization (money sources, basic logistics, hierarchy, equipment, et.) hide? How about a cruise to Zurich? For the Taliban to hide means to fold into the Pakistan surrendering, leaving the mountains and valleys to the US. In these two years, the US will build schools, roads, clinics, support local political institutions, etc.

Coming back after the hiatus to pundit land, the Taliban will fight back for the support of the people, demolish girls schools, dismiss political institutions, etc. In short, they will start fresh without their achievements in the last 20 years. Sure, and global warming will reduce temperatures.

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